E*TRADE Study Reveals Bulls Charging Into New Year, yet Concerns Linger

Despite rising geopolitical tensions and recession concerns, investors think the market will rise this quarter, but recognize the bull run won’t last forever

ARLINGTON, Va.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–E*TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC) today announced results from the most recent wave of StreetWise, the E*TRADE quarterly tracking study of experienced investors. Results indicate increasingly bullish investor views:


  • Investors kick off the year optimistic. Bullish sentiment rose 11 percentage points to 61%, matching 2019 bullish highs (61%).
  • And most think the market will rise this quarter. The majority of investors (56%) believe the market will rise this quarter, an increase of 13 percentage points since last quarter.
  • Investors feel significantly more Raging Bull. When asked which movie best describes the market this quarter Raging Bull scored highest (22%), up 15 percentage points since last quarter.
  • Though recession fears continue. Nearly one third of investors (30%) say they’re most concerned with recession.
  • And many think the end is near. More than three out of five investors (62%) believe the bull market will come to an end within two years, and most think we’re at our economic peak (56%).

“We ended 2019 with record highs and the market continues to show strength as we start the New Year,” said Mike Loewengart, VP of Investment Strategy. “Amid a backdrop of strong economic fundamentals, investors are looking past the near-term noise of Middle Eastern tensions, trade disputes, and impeachment inquiries and staying focused on their long-term goals. The market is nothing if not unpredictable, so having a basket of diversified investments will be paramount for investors to help weather the inevitable market highs and lows.”

The survey explored investor views on sector opportunities for the first quarter of 2020:

  • IT. The tech sector has consistently remained a top performer and, with a final Phase One US-China trade deal, investors see opportunity ahead with nearly half (46%) showing interest in the sector.
  • Energy. As Middle Eastern tensions rise, investors are seeing opportunity in the energy sector (45%) as supply and demand concerns take hold. Interest in the sector ticked up 4 percentage points for this quarter.
  • Health care. The health care sector remains a key area of interest for investors (44%). Despite bullish sentiment for this quarter, health care stocks are typically viewed as a defensive play with the ability to weather economic downturns.

E*TRADE aims to enhance the financial independence of traders and investors through a powerful digital offering and professional guidance. To learn more about E*TRADE’s trading and investing platforms and tools, visit etrade.com.

For useful trading and investing insights from E*TRADE, follow the company on Twitter, @ETRADE.

About the Survey

This wave of the survey was conducted from January 1 to January 10 of 2020 among an online US sample of 907 self-directed active investors who manage at least $10,000 in an online brokerage account. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.20 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. It was fielded and administered by Dynata. The panel is broken into thirds of active (trade more than once a week), swing (trade less than once a week but more than once a month), and passive (trade less than once a month). The panel is 60% male and 40% female, with an even distribution across online brokerages, geographic regions, and age bands.

About E*TRADE Financial and Important Notices

E*TRADE Financial and its subsidiaries provide financial services including brokerage and banking products and services to retail customers. Securities products and services are offered by E*TRADE Securities LLC (Member FINRA/SIPC). Commodity futures and options on futures products and services are offered by E*TRADE Futures LLC (Member NFA). Managed Account Solutions are offered through E*TRADE Capital Management, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Bank products and services are offered by E*TRADE Bank, and RIA custody solutions are offered by E*TRADE Savings Bank, both of which are national federal savings banks (Members FDIC). More information is available at www.etrade.com.

The information provided herein is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

E*TRADE Financial, E*TRADE, and the E*TRADE logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of E*TRADE Financial Corporation. ETFC-G

© 2020 E*TRADE Financial Corporation. All rights reserved.

E*TRADE Financial Corporation engages Dynata to program, field, and tabulate the study. Dynata provides digital research data and has locations in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. For more information, please go to www.dynata.com.

Referenced Data

When it comes to the current market, are you?

 

Total

 

Q1’20

Q4’19

Q3’19

Q2’19

Q1’19

Bullish

61%

50%

61%

58%

46%

Bearish

39%

50%

39%

42%

54%

Where do you predict the market will end this quarter?

 

Q1’20

Q4’19

Drop (Net)

25%

36%

Drop – 20%

1%

1%

Drop – 15%

1%

3%

Drop – 10%

7%

8%

Drop – 5%

16%

23%

Stay where it is

19%

22%

Rise 5%

37%

26%

Rise 10%

13%

11%

Rise 15%

4%

4%

Rise 20%

2%

2%

Rise (Net)

56%

43%

If you had to pick a movie title that best describes how you personally feel about the market this quarter, which would it be?

 

Total

 

Q1’20

Q4’19

Raging Bull

22%

7%

Easy Rider

22%

21%

Singin’ in the Rain

19%

12%

Dazed and Confused

17%

32%

Pulp Fiction

8%

10%

Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

5%

7%

Jackass

4%

8%

Apocalypse Now

3%

3%

Which of the following risks are you most concerned about when it comes to your portfolio? (Top 2)

 

Total

 

Q1’20

Q4’19

US trade tensions

44%

47%

Recession

30%

34%

Market volatility

23%

22%

Gridlock in Washington

23%

24%

Economic weakness abroad

20%

20%

Fed monetary policy

16%

16%

Flattening/inverted yield curve

11%

11%

Brexit

7%

8%

Softening job market

5%

4%

Low inflation

5%

3%

Other

8%

5%

None of these

4%

3%

How many years do you think we have left in the bull market?

 

Total

 

Q1’20

Q4’19

5+ years

5%

4%

3–4 years

23%

23%

1–2 years

37%

34%

The end is near

25%

28%

I don’t know

10%

11%

What stage of the business cycle do you believe we are currently in?

 

Total

 

Q1’20

Q4’19

Peak

56%

52%

Expansion

27%

19%

Recession

13%

24%

Trough

2%

4%

Recovery

2%

1%

What industries do you think offer the most potential this quarter? (Top three)

 

Q1’20

Q4’19

Q3’19

Q2’19

Q1’19

Information technology

46%

47%

47%

44%

38%

Energy

45%

41%

41%

48%

40%

Health care

44%

43%

48%

48%

50%

Financials

33%

31%

35%

34%

36%

Real estate

27%

Utilities

21%

32%

26%

27%

29%

Communication services

20%

21%

23%

22%

23%

Consumer staples

19%

30%

25%

22%

30%

Industrials

17%

18%

21%

22%

20%

Materials

16%

17%

16%

19%

16%

Consumer discretionary

13%

19%

18%

15%

17%

 

Contacts

E*TRADE Media Relations
646-521-4418

mediainq@etrade.com

E*TRADE Investor Relations
646-521-4406

IR@etrade.com

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