Personal Computing Device Shipments Forecast to Continue Their Slow Decline with a Five-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate of -1.2%, According to IDC

FRAMINGHAM, Mass.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–lt;a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/IDCTracker?src=hash” target=”_blank”gt;#IDCTrackerlt;/agt;–According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC)
Worldwide
Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker
, unit shipments for the
worldwide personal computing devices (PCD) market, comprised of
Traditional PCs and Tablets, are expected to decline 3.3% in 2019. The
market contraction comes on the heels of 2018, which also saw an overall
decline in shipments despite good growth for commercial PCs. The decline
in shipment volume is expected to continue throughout the forecast
period as the market shrinks to 372.6 million units in 2023 with a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.2%.

Detachables are expected to grow modestly over the five-year forecast
with a CAGR of 4.6%. IDC believes this product category will have a
stronger impact in the commercial segment as vendors increasingly focus
their attention on enterprise and education markets for their sales.
Chrome-based devices, which tend to be education centric, are expected
to find some traction as more detachable Chrome tablets enter the scene.
Slate tablets will continue to decline with a CAGR of -4.4% with the
market becoming increasingly concentrated towards the holiday quarters.
Competition from key players has resulted in more brands reducing their
presence or exiting the market altogether.

Traditional PCs will continue along a tough landscape with declining
desktop demand offset by emerging notebook opportunities, stabilizing
with a slight CAGR decline of -0.4% between 2019 and 2023. Some
inhibitors that surfaced near the end of 2018 will still be in play in
the early part of 2019. Though easing up, the CPU shortage may hamper
some entry-level device volume. Gaming PCs, whose momentum had been
building for much of 2018, will also face some short-term challenges as
the market works through older GPU inventory and the gaming ecosystem
warms up to Nvidia’s latest offerings. On a brighter note, although the
commercial PC market is expected to see a small dip in 2019 compared to
the previous year, the commercial notebook forecast has been raised for
2019. IDC expects a sizable amount of last-minute Windows 10 migration
projects to be completed this year, especially among SMBs with an aging
installed base. Finally, advances in the PC experience will drive most
of the PCD device conversation, further cementing notebooks as the
dominant form factor and taking up nearly 46% of the PCD market by 2023.

“Notebooks/Mobile Workstations and Detachable Tablets are expected to
take 53% of all PCD shipments by 2023, a clear majority,” said Jay
Chou
, research manager of the PCD Tracker at IDC. “Even as personal
computing takes place on a myriad of devices and emerging venues like
the cloud, IDC believes there remains a place for portable devices that
can evolve to fit changing tastes while still retaining important but
under-appreciated features like a physical keyboard.”

“While the long-run PCD market remains in persistent decline, the
constitution of the market continues to churn for the better,” added Linn
Huang
, research director for Devices and Displays at IDC. “And with
ray-tracing ramping up and 5G-connected, dual-screen, and foldable
devices on the not-too-distant horizon, consumers and professionals will
likely find something compelling at the premium end.”

 
Personal Computing Device Forecast, 2019-2023 (shipments in
millions)
Product Category    

2019
Shipments*

   

2019
Share*

   

2023
Shipments*

   

2023
Share*

   

2019-2023
CAGR*

Desktop PC + Desktop & Datacenter Workstation     88.4     22.6%     79.5     21.3%     -2.6%
Notebook + Mobile Workstation 166.0     42.4%     171.0     45.9%     0.7%
Detachable Tablet 22.1     5.7%     26.5     7.1%     4.6%
Slate Tablet     114.7     29.3%     95.6     25.7%     -4.4%
Grand Total     391.1     100.0%     372.6     100.0%     -1.2%
                               
Traditional PC** 254.4     65.0%     250.5     67.2%     -0.4%
Traditional PC + Detachable 276.5     70.7%     277.0     74.3%     0.05%
Total Tablet (Slate + Detachable)     136.8     35.0%     122.1     32.8%     -2.8%
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker,
March 7, 2019
 

* Notes: All figures represent forecast data.

** Traditional PCs include Desktop, Notebook, and Workstation.

IDC’s Worldwide
Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker
gathers data in more
than 90 countries and provides detailed, timely, and accurate
information on the global personal computing device market. This
includes data and insight into global trends around desktops, notebooks,
detachable tablets, slate tablets, and workstations. In addition to
insightful analysis, the program delivers quarterly market share data
and a five-year forecast by country. The research includes historical
and forecast trend analysis.

For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact
Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.

About IDC Trackers
IDC
Tracker
products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor
share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than
100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research
processes, IDC’s Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and
monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly
excel deliverables and on-line query tools.

About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the
premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and
events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer
technology markets. With more than 1,100 analysts worldwide, IDC offers
global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry
opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC’s analysis and
insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment
community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their
key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of IDG,
the world’s leading media, data and marketing services company that
activates and engages the most influential technology buyers. To learn
more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com.
Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC
and LinkedIn.

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Contacts

Jay Chou
jchou@idc.com
650-350-6464

Ryan Reith
rreith@idc.com
650-350-6242

Jitesh Ubrani
jubrani@idc.com
416-873-0315

Michael Shirer
press@idc.com
508-935-4200

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